FEAR METER
How scared the market is, 0 to 100, in one line: stocks, the VIX, bonds, gold, bitcoin, the dollar and junk bonds weighed together, so you see a panic building before you take your next trade.
Let me open with a question.
When the market sells off hard, how do you know whether it is a normal dip or real panic?
Warren Buffett's line is to be greedy when others are fearful. Fine. But in the moment, the headlines all sound the same, and one number like the VIX tells you only one part of the story.
What if you had one line on your chart that read the whole market at once, and coloured itself as fear built up?
My name is Ben. I've been part of building trading tools for close to a decade, me and a really great team: TriTrader+, MagniZone, the Morning Power Hour system, OCP, EFC, 5 Candle Master, Green Light Options and others thousands of traders have used.
Our options team has over 20 years of combined experience in the trenches.
I built the Fear Meter because I wanted to read the whole market's mood in one glance before I put on a trade. Today it runs on our own data too, and the reading on this page is live: worked out from the markets as the page loaded.
Here's what you're going to see in this briefing:
- Eight markets in one line: what goes into the reading, and how each is weighed.
- Green, orange, red: what each zone of the meter means.
- The BUY diamond: where the script draws it, and what our testing found when we checked it.
- The reading right now, and what is moving it.
Don't take my word for any of it. Here it is, drawn from the market as this page loaded.
The market right now, on the Fear Meter
This is the Fear Meter worked out from our own market data as this page loaded: the reading on the gauge, the line on the 4-hour candles in the script's colours, and what each of the eight markets is adding right now.
The Fear Meter is gathering its history
It reads 200 four-hour candles of each of its eight inputs before its first reading, about five months of the market. Still coming in: VIX. The first fetch runs on its own; nothing to do.
Why fear fools most traders
Here's what happens in every sell-off.
Traders look at one thing: the price of the stock they own, or the VIX on the news. A red day looks like a crash, and a real crash looks like a dip until it is too late.
The fix is not one gauge. It's the whole market's mood in one reading, so you can tell a wobble from a panic.
Fear shows up everywhere at once
Here's the insight the meter is built on.
Real fear never stays in one market. Stocks fall, the VIX jumps, money runs to Treasuries and gold, junk bonds and bitcoin get sold, the dollar moves. Any one of those can be noise. All of them together is fear.
So the Fear Meter scores eight markets against their own recent range and weighs them into one line, 0 to 100.
How the Fear Meter works
The Fear Meter reads eight markets on the 4-hour candles: the S&P 500, the VIX, the 10-year yield, gold, bitcoin, the US dollar, junk bonds (HYG) and long Treasuries (TLT).
Each one is scored by where it sits in its last 200 candles: 0 at the bottom of that range, 100 at the top.
Then they are weighed, exactly as the TradingView script does: stocks falling and the VIX rising count most, then gold, bitcoin, Treasuries, the yield, the dollar and junk bonds. The sum is held between 1 and 100, smoothed with a 14-candle EMA and a 7-candle average: that is the line.
The colours are the script's: green under 50 (risk on), orange 50 to 70, red 70 to 90 and bright red over 90 (extreme fear), on the line and behind it.
The ◆ BUY diamond is the line crossing up through 80, as the script draws it. We tested it and found no steady edge, so it is shown, never called: use the meter to read the market before you take a trade from our other systems.
Our inputs: SPY for the S&P 500, the VIX itself, IEF turned upside down for the 10-year yield, GLD for gold, IBIT for bitcoin, UUP for the dollar index, and HYG and TLT. Drawn both ways over two years, our line and the script's moved together (a correlation of 0.998), about a point apart, in the same zone 96% of the time.
It updates after each 4-hour candle closes: about 1:50 PM and 4:20 PM New York.
How to read it:
- ✓ Eight markets, each against its last 200 four-hour candles
- ✓ Weighed as the TradingView script, smoothed 14 then 7
- ✓ Green under 50, orange to 70, red to 90, bright red over 90
What the Fear Meter is, and what it isn't
I'll be straight with you about the diamond.
We tested the BUY diamond, the line crossing up through 80, the way we test every system. On the 4-hour candles it fired three times in eighteen months. On daily candles over ten years it fired thirteen times, the March 2020 crash among them, and SPY did worse over the next one to four weeks than after an ordinary day. No steady edge either way. So we draw it, and we never call it.
What the meter does well is read the room. Our version uses market stand-ins (SPY for the S&P 500, IEF for the 10-year, UUP for the dollar, IBIT for bitcoin), and over two years it moved with the TradingView script's line almost exactly: a correlation of 0.998, in the same zone 96% of the time.
Why this beats watching the VIX
One line, eight markets. Not just the VIX: stocks, bonds, gold, bitcoin, the dollar and junk bonds too.
Colours you can read in a second. Green, orange, red, bright red.
It sits beside your other systems. Read the market before you take a trade from anything else you use.
We tell you the truth about it. It is a reading, not a buy signal, and this page says what the BUY diamond did when we tested it.
What you actually get
- The Fear Meter indicator for TradingViewThe line in its own pane, coloured green, orange, red and bright red, with the zones behind it and the BUY diamond. Works on the free TradingView plan.
- The MAX PANIC StrategyThe playbook for the red days, a debit spread strategy, with a video walkthrough.
- The momentum strategyHow to use the meter when the market is calm and trending.
- The Fear Meter MasterclassThe meter, step by step, on video.
- Top 5 Panic Stocks BONUSThe guide to the stocks to watch when the market panics.
- Our recommended brokers BONUSWhere to place the trade.
- Put the Fear Meter on your TradingView chart (it is the line in its own pane).
- Before a trade, glance at the zone: green, orange, red or bright red.
- Red or bright red? Size down, tighten up, or wait; the MAX PANIC Strategy is the playbook for those days.
- Then take the trade, or not. Your plan, with the market in view.
One glance before a trade.
The offer
The old page listed it at $497. Today the Fear Meter is $197, one payment, for life. No monthly charges, no renewals.
14-day money-back guarantee.
14 DAYS, NO QUESTIONS ASKED
Use Fear Meter for 14 days. If it is not for you, ask through Support in your dashboard and you get every penny back. No questions asked.
The questions I'd ask before buying this
Is the BUY diamond a buy signal?
No, and we will not sell it as one. We tested it: on the 4-hour candles it fired three times in eighteen months (SPY was up after two), and on daily candles over ten years thirteen times, after which SPY did worse over the next one to four weeks than after an ordinary day. No steady edge, so it is drawn, never called.
So what is it for?
Reading the market before you trade. It tells you how scared the market is right now, so you can size, wait or hedge with your eyes open.
What goes into it?
The S&P 500, the VIX, the 10-year yield, gold, bitcoin, the US dollar, junk bonds (HYG) and long Treasuries (TLT), each scored against its last 200 four-hour candles and weighed as the TradingView script does.
Do I need a paid TradingView account?
No. It works on the free plan.
What is included?
The Fear Meter indicator for TradingView, the MAX PANIC Strategy and its walkthrough, the momentum strategy, the masterclass, our recommended brokers and the Top 5 Panic Stocks guide.
Does it repaint?
No. Fear Meter reads closed candles, and what it drew on a closed candle stays drawn.
I already own the Fear Meter. Do I need this?
No. It is already in your members area. This page is for traders who do not have it yet.
Is this a subscription?
No. $197 once, lifetime access. No monthly or yearly charges.
What if it's not for me?
Use Fear Meter for 14 days. If it is not for you, ask through Support in your dashboard and you get every penny back. No questions asked.
Two versions of the next sell-off
Sometime soon the market will have a scary week. It always does.
In one version, you read the headlines, guess, and find out later whether it was a dip or a panic.
In the other version, one glance at the meter told you how scared the whole market was, and you sized your next trade for it.
The Fear Meter reads the next one either way. The only question is whether it's on your chart.
P.S. Your login works within a couple of minutes of ordering, and the Fear Meter goes on your chart in about two minutes.
P.P.S. It is one payment, for life. No renewals.
P.P.P.S. 14 days, no questions asked. If the Fear Meter isn't for you, ask through Support in your dashboard.